女人我最大

一 |     昨天，秋天的第二个节气——处暑如约而至。    

    Soybean Photo: VCG
China continues to be the leading destination for Brazilian soybeans, and the Brazilian soybean industry wants to further deepen this relationship, expecting historically high volumes in the coming months, the Brazilian Association of Soybean Growers (Aprosoja Brasil) told the Global Times on Friday.
Brazilian soybean exports to China have remained very strong. China imported 12.08 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in June, up 13.7 percent year-on-year, while imports from the US fell 20.9 percent year-on-year to 1.27 million tons, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
China imported 34.75 million tons of soybeans from Brazil during the period, up 9.1 percent year-on-year, according to Aprosoja Brasil. "Based on arrivals and customs clearance in China, there was clear growth," the association said.
According to the official data platform Brazilian Comex Stat, which records shipments at origin, 48.32 million metric tons were destined for China from January through June, largely unchanged from 48.41 million metric tons during the same period in 2025.
The difference between the two datasets mainly reflects timing and methodological differences between the recording of departures, cargoes in transit, arrivals and customs clearance.
Aprosoja Brasil said that the broader economic conclusion is the same: "Trade flows remained historically strong, China continued to be the leading destination for Brazilian soybeans, and Brazil's total soybean exports reached a first-half record of 69.57 million metric tons."
For farmers, strong export volumes help support the marketing of the crop, although record exports do not automatically mean record farm margins, said the Brazilian industry association.
China is the world's largest soybean importer. Imported soybeans are mainly used for oil production and animal feed. In terms of trading partners, China mainly imports soybean-related products from Brazil, the US, Argentina, Uruguay and Canada.
Brazil ranks among the world's leading soybean producers and exporters, with China being its largest export market for soybeans, according to the Xinhua News Agency. 
Commenting on the significance of the Chinese market, Aprosoja Brasil said "China is absolutely strategic to Brazil's soybean industry," citing data showing that in 2025, China purchased 85.4 million metric tons, representing approximately 79 percent of all Brazilian soybean exports.
The two countries also have a highly complementary trade relationship. For Brazilian farmers, Chinese demand provides scale, market liquidity and greater capacity for long-term planning, said the Brazilian soybean industry association. For China, Brazil offers large, competitive and reliable supplies, as well as a crop calendar that complements production in other supplying countries.
Previously, policy shifts, such as US unilateral tariff measures, have caused disruption for US soybean farmers and other agricultural producers, Lü Xiang, research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times. 
At the same time, China has been diversifying imports, including from Brazil and Argentina, to reduce risks from trade uncertainty, according to Lü.
Aprosoja Brasil noted that this partnership should not be seen merely as a temporary consequence of trade disputes involving third countries. Instead, it is a structural and mutually beneficial relationship, based on the complementarity between Brazil's production capacity and China's large demand for food, animal feed and protein, the industry group said.
Looking ahead to the soybean trade for the rest of the year, Aprosoja Brasil said that they are positive, while having a prudent mindset. Brazil has completed the harvest of a record soybean crop of approximately 180.6 million metric tons, and Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 116.3 million metric tons in 2026, which would also be a record, the association said.
"Brazil therefore has sufficient supply to continue serving the Chinese market strongly in the coming months... We expect historically high volumes, although not necessarily growth every single month, because soybean trade is seasonal and Northern Hemisphere supplies become more prominent during the second half of the year," it said.
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二 | “处，止也，暑气至此而止矣。”处暑的到来，意味着暑气开始消退，酷热难熬的天气接近尾声。不过，对于杭州来说，当前副热带高压“余威”尚存，昨天主城区最高温仍有32.8℃、余杭区则跃上35.3℃，闷热不减。接下来，天气舞台上还有“捣蛋鬼”动作频频，本周“天气大戏”即将开演。

三 | 处暑至 闷热不减 杭州开启晴雨交替模式当前，虽然暑热最盛阶段已过，但副热带高压仍“不甘示弱”，持续发威。

四 | 据杭州市气象台消息，由于副高再度回归，杭州天气转为多云为主，出太阳的时间逐渐增多。不过，这段时间副热带高压的实力并不强，高压环流浅薄，无法彻底阻断低层水汽输送，在午后气温较高的时段，容易引发降雨甚至强对流，午后有分散性阵雨或雷雨的天气模式将持续到本周四（27日）。处暑期间，往往台风活跃。当前，西北太平洋和南海海域正上演着“三台共舞”——今年第18号台风“沙德尔”、第19号台风“紫檀”和第20号台风“简拉维”同时活跃。对浙江来说，上周日，“简拉维”和“紫檀”两个台风的环流，形成双涡轮的水汽传送带，上演了“急雨倾盆”的戏码。今明两天，强降雨“主战场”仍锁定在浙南地区，部分地区雨势持续强劲。据浙江天气网消息，今天东南沿海和浙南地区雨势较强，部分暴雨，局部大暴雨；明天主攻浙南沿海，依旧部分暴雨，局部大暴雨。有雷雨地区局部还可能伴有短时强降水，雨势汹汹。在此提醒大家，近期晴雨交替频繁，洗晒衣物建议优先选择室内晾晒，日常外出记得随身携带雨具，及时关注当地预警信息，防范突发降雨。超强台风“沙德尔”或奔向东南沿海为什么今年的台风这么多？当前，远在西北太平洋还有一个超强台风“沙德尔”不容小觑。中国天气网显示，昨天上午，“沙德尔”已升级为超强台风，从卫星云图来看，“沙德尔”环流庞大，直径约1000公里，结构对称、眼区清晰，对流旺盛。预计周二（25日）前“沙德尔”对我国无影响，但后期路径存在较大变数，不排除登陆我国东南沿海的可能性。“沙德尔”会不会影响杭州？市气象台预计，其走势完全取决于副热带高压的强弱，高压强势则台风南压、对杭州影响较小，高压减弱则台风北调，或将影响杭州周四（27日）后的天气走势。值得注意的是，无论“沙德尔”未来怎么走，都将给我国带来明显的风雨影响，浙江天气网预计周四至周六（27日—29日），受其外围影响，沿海地区将再次迎来中到大雨、局部暴雨。

五 | 另外，西北太平洋上还有一个热带低压正在活动。中央气象台首席预报员张玲表示，这个热带低压存在成为下一个编号的台风的可能，并且在“沙德尔”逐渐靠近我国的过程中，它可能与台风“沙德尔”产生互旋，并为台风“沙德尔”提供更多水汽，成为影响台风“沙德尔”进入东海后的路径和强度的重要因素之一。若其正式生成，海面上将出现“四台共舞”的现象。

六 | 中国天气网数据显示，今年1月至8月，每个月都有台风生成，且数量均多于常年同期。常年1月至8月平均生成13.4个台风，而今年8月尚未结束，生成总数已达20个，较历史同期偏多8个。为什么今年的台风这么多？“这与当前的厄尔尼诺状态密切相关。

七 | ”张玲解释，在厄尔尼诺背景下，容易导致大西洋飓风生成受到抑制、个数偏少，但西太平洋的台风活动则会更加活跃。从目前台风生成个数来看，符合厄尔尼诺年的台风活动特点。目前，三个台风对我国华东和华南地区的影响是一个连续过程，无明显间歇期，未来需警惕持续强降雨引发的次生灾害及风雨叠加效应，同时“沙德尔”将正面影响我国华东沿海地区，强度较强、致灾风险高，需密切关注“沙德尔”的路径变化。